Intelligence products are read by people making consequential decisions under time pressure. If the report does not distinguish between established fact and reasonable inference, the reader will flatten both into certainty.
Four things worth separating
- Fact: documented, verifiable, and sourced
- Reporting: asserted by a source, with the source's reliability described
- Inference: a conclusion drawn by the analyst from the above
- Judgement: an assessment of what it means, with a stated confidence
Confidence is about the evidence, not the analyst
Low confidence does not mean a weak analyst or a poor engagement. It means the available evidence supports the judgement only tentatively, and it signals precisely where additional work would be worthwhile.
Defensibility
Intelligence should reduce uncertainty, not manufacture certainty.
Decisions are sometimes examined afterwards by boards, regulators, or courts. A report that was honest about its limits protects the decision-maker who relied on it.
This article is general commentary on intelligence practice. It does not describe any client, engagement, or individual, and it is not advice on a specific situation.